Ethereum Elliot Wave Analysis
Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), I showed last week that Ethereum (ETH) was wrapping up its last 4th and 5th waves of the dreaded c-wave lower. See figure 1 below. I was looking for “(red) wave-iv is underway and should ideally subdivide …to the ideal target zone of around $2300+/100. Based on the more recent available price data, I have adjusted this target zone slightly lower ….
When it also completes, ETH should do one last stab lower for wave-V to ideally ~$1500+/-100.” Now, 4th waves are always real tricksters (see here), and all we got was ~$2150 as the anticipated subdivision did not materialize.
Figure 1. Ethereum daily chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.
The c-wave is wrapping up its last 5th wave.
Instead, the $2150K high was all off (red) intermediate wave-iv, and since then, the price action has been overlapping to the downside. What do I mean by “overlapping”? Three waves lower, followed by three waves back up, etc. The pattern morphs into an ending diagonal (ED) intermediate wave-v of (black) major wave-c of (blue) Primary IV. See Figure 1 above.
All ETH needs to do is complete the last (grey) minute wave-v of 5, and it has then technically done enough to complete the correction that started in November last year. A break back above the $2150K high will be the first confirmation that the rally to $10K+ has begun. Please note the positive divergences that are developing on the technical indicators: the MACD is on a buy and pointing up, while the RSI14 is making a higher low. These are additionally signs of a low being put into place.
Bottom Line and ETH Price Forecast
Over the past many weeks, the EWP has been able to forecast ETH’s price decline. A few minor tweaks were necessary as not every daily scribble can be known beforehand. But once these scribbles were identified and qualified, they all fitted without exception within the EWP-based path laid out many weeks ago:
- Drop to the low $2000 region (achieved).
- Multi-day bounce back to $2300+/-100 (almost reached as it stalled at $2150).
- Final stab lower to ~$1500+/-100 (now underway).
ETH is likely completing an ending diagonal (ED) 5th wave at this stage. EDs are made up of five smaller waves (green 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 in Figure 1), of which their respective internals are three waves. So far, this appears to be the case, and wave-3of the ED is now about to complete. Thus ETH seems to be close to completing its correction, but it will have to rally back above $2150K to provide initial confirmation this is the case.
